I’m an equal opportunity political junkie. Meaning all political discourse appeals to me. Our neighbours to the south are having an election soon (like, there’s no way you didn’t know that, come on. It’s been going on foreverandadayomgenoughalready.) I have…thoughts about it. Many.
Let’s start with the piece of the race to the White House that’s getting the most press right now: the Republican nomination for their candidate for President of the United States. There are still, unbelievably NINE candidates still running for the nomination. 206 days out (as of February 3rd, 2016) of the Republican National Convention, the field is still so wide that the winner of the Iowa caucuses only got just over 22% of the vote. My word. So that has to shrink, considerably, in the next little while.
They’ll drop out as the money flow starts to dry up, as support is harder to drum up, as they lose caucus after caucus. Because if you can’t pay for ads, you’ll never reach anyone. And if you can’t pay for gas for your bus, you can’t get to the people. And if you can’t get even 5% of the vote, it’s really hard to convince volunteers to stump for you. But I digress.
Here are my predictions:
Before the New Hampshire primary (Feb 9th, 2016), at least one more Republican will drop out of the race. Maybe even two. I’m guessing it’s Carson or Santorum or both. Then Fiorina goes. Unfortunately Kasich is probably next, then Christie. Bush will stick it out even though he shouldn’t.
Trump is a wild card, he won’t take the nomination. He doesn’t want to be President. There’s not enough money and not enough actual power in the Presidency. Not the kind that Trump likes.
It’ll go between Cruz and Rubio, down to the very last second, maybe all the way down to the Republican National Convention.
I’m guessing Rubio takes it. And if that happens, I believe the RNC and Reince Priebus are behind it. They don’t want Cruz, he’ll have too hard of a time against Democrats. He’s too polarizing, he’s too unlikable, he’s not Presidential enough.
Before New Hampshire, either Carson first;
if not Santorum. Then after New Hampshire;
Fiorina. Then it’ll be;
Kasich, followed by
I think those will all be in quick succession.
Next, Bush will go, then
Trump will take awhile but he’ll check out with controversy.
It’ll come down to Cruz, who will have too hard of a time convincing folks he’s more likeable than…
THE WINNER! Rubio.
(Gross, but ya gotta pick one)
::rubs hands together:: Let’s go, kids.